I believe that 2024 will belong to Indian Equities. A likely global growth slowdown as a lag effect of
monetary tightening to fight inflation is positive for India as it is a net importer.
GDP = Consumption +Investments + Government Expenditure + Exports – Imports.
A meaningful decline in the prices of items that India imports (e.g. crude, electronics etc) due to
slowdown in consumption in developed economies like U.S. and also China is net positive for India as
it will bring down trade deficit/current account deficit, and strengthen Rupee, which will have ripple
effect of bringing down imported inflation and interest rates and boost domestic consumption and
GDP.
India has Seven D’s:
1) Democracy
2) Demography
3) Demand
4) Dynamic leadership
5) Decisiveness
6) Digitalisation
7) Domestic Investor Support
India’s growth is less dependent on global economy. India will, therefore, attract foreign inflows as
growth slows down in rest of the world.
Goddess Lakshmi (FPI inflows ) is always in search of her Lord Narayan (Growth at reasonable
valuations).
Risk factor: If PM Modi does not return to power in next General Elections (May, 2024), the equity
markets may fall. But chances of such an eventuality are extremely low in my view.